Global emissions will fall only by 2% by 2030

Here’s a note from Andreas Rasche:

UNFCCC released a brand new analysis ahead of COP28 UAE showing that global emissions will fall only by 2% until 2030 (compared to 2019 baseline). This number was calculated based on the assumption that all current national climate plans (which specify Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs) are fully implemented.

This by itself is already sobering. What is even more sobering is that to stay aligned with the 1.5C goal, however, we need a 43% reduction until 2030 (against 2019 levels). Hence, seven years before the crucial 2030 deadline we are 41% short of global emissions reductions.

These numbers just show how obvious it is that governments are failing us in the fight against climate change. Governments – including big emitters like the US and UK – are not updating their targets.